COVID-19 cases rising in France as autumn approaches
France is recording a rise in COVID-19 cases at the start of September, with wastewater analysis indicating virus concentration has been steadily increasing since June and now approaching levels last seen in March.
Wastewater surveillance systems, which can pre-emptively indicate local spikes in cases and facilitate preparation in healthcare systems, show SARS-CoV-2 presence across treatment stations nationwide. This monitoring methodology has become a key tool in tracking the disease's circulation patterns.
The increase follows a pattern that has become typical in the post-pandemic era. France saw the lowest spring and summer case levels of any post-pandemic year in 2026, though the disease has established a recurring seasonal rhythm with winter peaks and smaller late-summer waves.
Current variant and severity
The variants currently circulating in France are believed to include XFG, which has been spreading across Germany and other European regions. XFG is a recombinant variant combining genetic material from LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 subvariants, first detected in Canada with the earliest sample collected on January 27, 2025.
The European Medicines Agency recommended in May 2026 that COVID-19 vaccines be updated to target the XFG variant for the 2026/2027 vaccination campaign. XFG's circulation had peaked at 74% of globally sequenced infections in October 2025.
Epidemiological and clinical reporting have not identified consistent signals that XFG causes more severe disease or higher hospitalization rates than recent Omicron-descended variants. Reports from North America, where the variant spread earlier, have not shown corresponding increases in hospitalizations.
Travellers returning from North America have reported strong but short flu-like symptoms lasting two to three days, potentially contributing to the spread of cases in Europe.
There is no cause for alarm. Healthy young adults have no reason for undue concern. Elderly and vulnerable individuals should remain protected against severe forms of the disease thanks to their previous COVID-19 vaccinations.
— Dr Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist, to media outlet Actu
Vaccination campaign expected
French health authorities have yet to officially announce dates for the autumn/winter 2026 COVID vaccination campaign, though Assurance Maladie's website Ameli indicates the vaccine rollout will take place in mid-October for mainland France and Corsica.
This timing follows the precedent set by the previous campaign, which began on October 14, 2025, and was combined with the seasonal flu vaccination drive. During that 2025-2026 flu season, close to 30,000 people in France were hospitalized with flu or flu-like symptoms, with three million doctor appointments made for flu-like conditions.
The upcoming campaign is expected to operate in tandem with the seasonal flu vaccine drive, as in previous years. While full details are not yet available, it is anticipated that the same eligibility conditions and reimbursement arrangements will apply as for previous campaigns.
France's most recent spring 2026 COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which ran from April 20 to June 30, targeted vulnerable populations including those over 65, immunocompromised individuals, and people with comorbidities.
Ongoing monitoring and precautions
Unlike seasonal flu, which typically appears in winter, COVID-19 has demonstrated the ability to circulate throughout the year, including summer months. The virus has transitioned from pandemic-level threat to joining the list of common but less-fatal seasonal illnesses, though it remains more prevalent year-round than influenza.
Dr Flahault's advice for vulnerable people includes wearing FFP2 protective gear when in large groups and ensuring good ventilation in enclosed spaces where they spend significant time with others.
The wastewater monitoring data continues to serve as an early warning system, allowing health authorities and healthcare facilities to prepare for potential increases in cases as the autumn and winter months approach.
