Exchange breach triggers market losses
AMBCrypto's October 31, 2026, report estimated the Binance theft at $6.3 billion, calling it the largest hack in crypto history. It said $3 billion of the stolen funds had been frozen, with Binance's SAFU fund covering the remainder.
The attack affected Binance's internet-connected hot wallets, not the Bitcoin network, according to analysis cited by CoinMarketCap on October 31. Bitcoin's protocol kept operating normally, and no transactions were reversed.
The market reaction extended beyond Bitcoin's six-week low. Ethereum slipped below $2,200, while liquidations exceeded $1.6 billion in the 24-hour period around the hack, AMBCrypto reported.
Separately, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net withdrawals of $643.33 million on October 30, ending four consecutive days of net inflows. CoinMarketCap's October 31 CMC AI update said BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led the outflows, with total net assets across the funds at $98.14 billion.
Rebounds and new records follow different timelines
Pluang's account of AMBCrypto's analysis says Bitcoin has typically posted substantial gains within a year of major crypto disasters, including the Mt. Gox hack and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Experts cited in the report distinguish between thefts, which markets tend to absorb quickly, and insolvencies, which can prolong uncertainty. The report also cautions that abrupt sell-offs like the Binance panic can be unusually sharp and rare, and says broader market cycles matter more to Bitcoin's long-term direction than individual incidents.
The COVID-19 crash provides one example of a rapid recovery. On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin lost 37.2% in a day, dropping from $7,911 to $4,971, according to CryptoTicker's October 22, 2026, analysis. By July 27, it had surpassed its February 2020 high, 137 days after the low. CryptoTicker describes that recovery as faster than those following any of Bitcoin's major bear markets.
Regaining an all-time high has sometimes taken much longer. Using daily closing prices, CryptoTicker counted seven declines of more than 50% from Bitcoin's record high since 2011. Bitcoin eventually exceeded the previous record after each of the first six declines. For the four major bear markets, the interval between one record high and the next ranged from 630 to 1,127 days.
The same analysis found that major bear-market losses had become less severe over successive cycles: roughly 93% in 2011, 84.5% into 2015, 83.4% into 2018 and 76.6% into 2022. The downturn that started on October 6, 2025, reached a 53.1% decline by June 30, 2026.
That downturn also included a separate liquidation shock. After US President Donald Trump announced additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods on October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly closed across more than 1.6 million traders. CryptoTicker described it as crypto's largest-ever wave of liquidations.
Gains elsewhere in Pluang's market snapshot
Pluang's October 31, 2026, snapshot at 23:02 WIB showed daily gains for 30 of the 50 major cryptocurrencies it tracked and losses for 19. EGLD had the strongest gain, rising 8.49% to Rp63,944, just ahead of AAVE's 8.28% increase to Rp2,458,831. EOS rose 8.13% to Rp12,649.
Typical holding periods in the snapshot spanned 86 to 106 days. For EGLD, buying accounted for 61% of activity, compared with 39% for selling.
